The issue:

Sudan is embroiled in a prolonged civil war that shows no signs of resolution after 19 months of conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Despite the RSF appearing weaker due to territorial losses and defections, the situation remains dire, exacerbated by humanitarian crises and tribal tensions.

The SAF has regained control of strategic areas, and the RSF has faced sanctions and social media suspensions, further isolating it. Civilian casualties and ethnic violence are rampant, with calls for a civilian protection force gaining traction.

However, international intervention appears unlikely as both sides express hostility to foreign meddling. The conflict’s complexity is heightened by external influences and the entrenchment of tribal identities, suggesting a potential slide into a more extensive civil war.

Insights:

The RSF is losing territorial control and facing internal defections, indicating a decline in its military strength.

Humanitarian crises in Sudan are worsening, with significant civilian displacement and casualties.

The conflict risks devolving into a broader civil war, fueled by ethnic mobilization and tribal allegiances.

International efforts for intervention and peace have faced significant obstacles, including mistrust between the warring factions and external players.

The SAF, despite criticism, is perceived as the more organized force, gaining morale and support from various tribes.

Questions Raised:

• What factors contribute to the ongoing conflict in Sudan?

The conflict is driven by power struggles between the SAF and RSF, historical grievances, ethnic tensions, and external influences, complicating any potential resolution.

• How has the humanitarian situation evolved in Sudan during the war?

The war has led to the world’s worst displacement crisis, with millions affected by starvation and violence, resulting in significant civilian casualties and suffering.

• Is there any possibility of international intervention in Sudan?

International intervention seems unlikely due to the SAF’s rejection of foreign forces and the lack of conditions conducive to successful peacekeeping efforts.

• What are the implications of tribal mobilization in this conflict?

Tribal mobilization can exacerbate violence and lead to ethnic cleansing, as groups align with either the SAF or RSF, deepening divisions and complicating peace efforts.

Opinion:

The world will again be shocked by another inhuman African slaughter.