Rising Afghan Spillover Threat Tests Tajikistan’s Security and Regional Alliances.

Tajikistan has reported new fatalities after an armed clash with militants crossing from Afghanistan, marking the third such infiltration in a month. According to the State National Security Committee, three armed members of a terrorist group illegally entered the Shamsiddin Shohin district before being killed after resisting arrest. Two Tajik border guards also died in the exchange.

Authorities seized M16 rifles, a Kalashnikov, foreign-made pistols with silencers, grenades, explosives and night‑vision equipment, underscoring the attackers’ level of preparation. Officials warn that repeated incursions from Afghan territory have already caused both civilian and military casualties. Although the border is now described as calm, investigations continue.

Against this backdrop, is it possible Afghanistan is trying to export radical Islam to the Tajiki Muslims? And what would that mean for Tajikistan’s relations with Russia?

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