In mid-March 2025, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth issued an internal memo directing the Pentagon to prioritize preparations for a potential war with China over Taiwan, labeling Beijing as the “sole pacing threat.” The memo, titled Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance, aligns with former President Donald Trump’s vision of countering China while reducing U.S. military commitments elsewhere, particularly in Europe. The document emphasizes Taiwan as the primary strategic focus, urging a reorientation of U.S. defense resources toward the Indo-Pacific, even if it means assuming greater risks in other regions.

The guidance explicitly states that the Pentagon should plan for major conflicts exclusively with China, leaving European allies to manage the threat from Russia with minimal U.S. support—limited largely to nuclear deterrence. Hegseth’s memo underscores the urgency of preventing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, calling it the Pentagon’s “sole pacing scenario.” To achieve this, the U.S. military would expand its presence in the region through submarines, bombers, unmanned ships, and specialized Army and Marine Corps units, while also bolstering defenses for U.S. bases and pre-positioning weapons stockpiles.

Additionally, the memo pressures Taiwan to significantly increase its military spending and advocates for NATO allies to take on greater defense burdens. Critics argue that while framed as deterrence, these aggressive measures risk escalating tensions with China, a nuclear-armed power. The Pentagon’s long-term strategy of expanding alliances, military bases, and arms support for Taiwan has already heightened regional instability.

Hegseth’s directive reflects the Trump administration’s broader skepticism toward NATO and its prioritization of great-power competition with China. However, the singular focus on Taiwan and the potential withdrawal of U.S. support from Europe could strain alliances and increase the likelihood of confrontation in the Indo-Pacific.