THE DECISIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF IRANIAN HYDROCARBONS IN US GEOPOLITICS

From the recent statements of American and Israeli top officials, we draw the conclusion that the defeat and removal of the Iranian regime is a geopolitical goal in itself for American imperialism. At the same time, this geopolitical self-interest is a critical springboard in its economic and military confrontation with USA’s main rival, China. All factions of the US deep state unconditionally support Israel because they know that controlling the resource-rich Middle East and ending the power of the Ayatollahs will greatly increase their power and flexibility in a war with China.

We recall that Iran has a long history of colonial subjugation, including British control of its oil industry in the first half of the 20th century, a CIA and MI6 coup in 1953 to prevent Mossadegh’s nationalization of its oil industry, and several decades of bloody rule by the US-backed Shah Reza Pahlavi.

Everyone knows that Iran’s wealth comes mainly from its oil. Iran produces more than 3 million oil barrels per day, that’s about 3% of the world’s total!

However, what is not so well understood is the possibility of expanding Iran’s oil production. Only three other countries in the world have larger reserves of commercially viable oil, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq. In addition, Iran has the second largest natural gas reserves in the world after Russia.

Oil and natural gas remain the energy backbone of the global economy. Despite efforts to promote new alternative energy sources, the “energy transition” remains a controversial plan, as global warming is not anthropogenic and is a narrative of World Economic Forum circles aimed at global governance. So today, 57% of the world’s energy comes from oil and natural gas, another 27% from coal and just 1% comes from solar and wind energy.

Given the enduring dominance of oil and natural gas, countries holding large, cheap reserves of this commodity remain essential to geopolitical calculations. It is striking that Russia, Iraq and Iran, after Saudi Arabia, are the largest holders of cheap oil reserves in the world. Thus it is explained that the US invaded Iraq twice and is now on the brink of war with both Russia and Iran, the second and third largest holders of oil and natural gas reserves.

The US in the last 15 years has experienced the largest production of shale oil and natural gas in world history, through hydraulic fracturing (fracking). This method allowed the US to increase production from about 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to over 14 mb/d. This represents about 15% of global oil supply and is the only major source of supply growth internationally during this period. This means that the US today is in a completely different position in terms of controlling global oil and gas production than it was when it was planning the invasion of Iraq in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

By being able to put a ceiling on oil and gas prices through fracking, US imperialism is able to afford the loss of oil from Libya, Russia and Iran to the world market, allowing USA and its NATO allies to pressure these countries and make plans to overthrow their regimes. In the case of Libya this plan succeeded and led to a permanent state of civil war and the destruction of the country. But this shale oil and gas “boom” won’t last forever. Generous estimates predict another 10 years, after which there will be a significant decline in production. That is, the domestic resources are running out and this means for American imperialism, “hunting season” from now on.

So, where are future supplies of oil and natural gas, vital to the global economy, going to exist as other US fracking sources dry up? Well, that’s in Middle East and Russia, with Iran, Russia, Iraq and Saudi Arabia being the most important future sources.

But what does China have to do with Iranian hydrocarbons and the “hunting” of American imperialism? A central reason for controlling geostrategic resources such as oil and minerals is not simply for the US to profit from them, but to pressure countries by denying them access to this vital supply of energy and resources. This is also highlighted by a study of the well-known think tank “RAND Corporation”, on how the US could win a war against China: “If China is vulnerable to critical deficiencies in a war with the US, they could the shortfalls are in oil supplies, since it imports about 60% from the Middle East and has a declared strategic reserve of only ten days”.

We note that today China is the leading recipient of Iranian oil, of course it depends on oil imports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Russia. If the Straits of Hormuz are closed as a result of a war between the US/Israel and Iran, only Russia remains a supplier to China.

We recall that in the US National Security Strategy , China is cited as the only US competitor that has “the intent and ability to reshape the international environment in favor of an order that tilts the global playing field in its favor” , which means that the US should aim to “compete” with China. The Pentagon’s latest National Defense Strategy also concludes that China “remains our most important strategic competitor for decades to come” because of its “coercive and increasingly aggressive effort to reshape the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its interests and authoritarian preferences” . Thus, China is not a threat because it undermines US security interests, but because it will seek to shape, and is already shaping, the global political and economic order in a way that serves its own interests and those of its allies, rather than those of the US and other western countries. So the real threat is not to the USA, but to the hegemonic unipolar ambitions of American imperialism and those who benefit from it .

Taking into account the aforementioned, the current geopolitical situation is shaped as follows:

• The US now controls the global oil and gas markets more than any other country.
• This level of dominance, however, has a limited window of about 5 to 10 years before that control is significantly eroded by the eventual decline of fracking.
• The US, economically threatened, plans a military confrontation with China centered on Taiwan.
• China is strategically vulnerable when it comes to oil, relying on massive daily flows of oil from the Middle East. Iran’s largest export partner is China.
• The Middle East and Russia will, in the long run, be the main sources of the world’s remaining oil and natural gas. Iran is one of the largest sources of undeveloped oil and gas reserves.

Taking these figures together, it is clear that Iran’s oil and gas are of great interest to the US and its partners. While many other factors enter into the consideration of war, it is no coincidence that the main targets of US imperialism are the most resource-rich countries in the world.

Netanyahu’s threats that Iran will “soon be free” reflect the fact that Israel, acting as the US’s “hunting dog”, has been given a blank check to restructure the Middle East, with the Israeli war machine being financed, armed and it is driven by US geostrategic interests, essentially US deep state interests, in the region.

This is the cold geostrategic logic behind the US-Israel war against Iran and its proxies in the Middle East. The US is seeking to strengthen and deepen its control in this vital region as it prepares for a possible war against China.

For those of us who are disgusted by the murderous state of Israel in the Middle East and the bloody, hypocritical role of the US, it is important to understand that this war is not a “political choice”. American capitalism, in its pursuit of usurious profit at all costs, is leading the US into a conflict that threatens the lives of billions of people. As absurd and dangerous as it is, the American ruling class, the deep state, sees no other way out than the economic, social and political crisis that is its absolute nightmare.