As domestic pressure mounts on President Trump to end the costly conflict with Iran, US intelligence agencies are analyzing how Tehran would react if he declared victory and withdrew from the region. According to a Reuters report, a White House official described the political pressure on Trump as “enormous,” with recent polling showing only 24% of Americans believe the war is worthwhile, and 54% citing negative financial impacts from rising gas prices.

Early in the US-Israeli bombing campaign, intelligence assessed that if Trump declared victory and pulled forces out, Iran would see it as a win. However, if he claimed victory without reducing the military footprint, Tehran would likely view it as a mere negotiating tactic. Despite announcing a ceasefire and claiming a “total and complete victory,” Trump has continued to build up regional forces, threaten further attacks, and enforce a blockade on Iranian ports—prompting Tehran to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, stalling peace talks.

janus