US-Israeli war on Iran, is it good or bad for Russia?
A US-Israeli war with Iran presents Russia with significant strategic advantages, primarily by vindicating its aggressive posture in Ukraine. For the Kremlin, the attack confirms its view of the West as a reckless, rogue actor, echoing the 2011 Libya intervention that convinced Putin that compromising leads to leader assassination and chaos. This serves to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a necessary, pre-emptive measure.
Militarily, a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict would deplete US arsenals of weapons, like air defence missiles, needed by Ukraine, while higher energy prices boost Russian revenue and strain European funders of Kyiv. Domestically, scenes of destruction in Iran reinforce Putin’s “besieged fortress” narrative, solidifying his image as Russia’s protector. Crucially, neutrality allows Russia to preserve its informal non-attack pact with Israel and avoid a costly intervention, all while potentially gaining greater leverage in any future Ukraine negotiations.
