The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could trigger a global energy crisis, severely impacting major economies like India, China, Japan, and European nations, according to Nikolay Gaponenko, an expert at the Presidential Academy’s Institute of Law and National Security. The warning follows statements by Iranian MP Esmaeil Kowsari, who suggested Tehran might block the strategic waterway in response to Israeli strikes.

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime route, handling 30% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and 20% of oil exports. Gaponenko emphasized that any disruption would send oil prices soaring, hitting energy-dependent economies hardest. “China and India, which rely heavily on Gulf oil imports, would face severe economic strain, with rising fuel costs exacerbating inflation,” he noted. The 2019 tensions, when Iran threatened similar action, demonstrated how quickly markets react to supply fears.

Beyond immediate price shocks, prolonged closure could accelerate a shift toward renewable energy, as nations seek to reduce fossil fuel dependence. However, in the short term, supply chain disruptions would strain global markets. With Israel and Iran exchanging strikes in recent days, the risk of further escalation—and a potential Hormuz blockade—remains a critical concern for energy security worldwide.